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Data center fights are loosening some rural Texans' Republican loyalty, but the margins Democrats need remain steep

Rural voters in Grimes and Navarro counties told The Texas Tribune they blame state leaders for data centers and other rapid development. Abbott's campaign says he will always put rural Texans first.

Gwen Mercer· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

October 23, 20262 min read

rural texas landscape - illustration, Jake Team LLC

Anger over data centers, new transmission lines and other large projects arriving in rural Texas is pulling some longtime Republican voters toward Democrats in this year's statewide races, though it is not clear the shift will be large enough to change results, The Texas Tribune reported Friday.

Rural voters make up less than a fifth of the Texas electorate, but they vote at high rates and have long given Republicans lopsided margins that offset Democratic gains in cities and suburbs.

According to the Tribune, Democratic nominees James Talarico, running for the U.S. Senate, and Gina Hinojosa, running for governor, are polling above 30% among rural voters, and a late-September Fox News survey put Talarico at 42% in rural Texas. The Tribune noted that no statewide Democrat has topped 25% of the rural vote since the Obama years.

Voices from the countryside

The story opens in Grimes County, where Joie Miller, a 31-year-old lifelong Republican, said construction of Elon Musk's planned Terafab chip plant near her in-laws' ranch brought round-the-clock truck traffic. She told the Tribune she plans to vote for a Democrat for the first time.

In Corsicana, a group of residents who described themselves as Republicans met with Hinojosa to lay out what they have documented about data centers in their area, including noise, air quality and rising power bills. Michael Ellis, 70, who lives less than a mile from a data center under construction in Navarro County, said he had not decided how to vote.

He said officials of either party need to oversee the industry.

The governor's response

Gov. Greg Abbott, who said last year he wanted Texas to be the "epicenter of AI development," has since paused new projects and asked the Legislature to write what he describes as the nation's toughest rules on data center water and power use into law, the Tribune reported. He has campaigned across rural Texas highlighting those steps.

Eduardo Leal, a spokesperson for Abbott's campaign, told the Tribune the governor "will always put rural Texans first" and accused Hinojosa of "pretending to be something she's not." Abbott's television ads have attacked Hinojosa's legislative record, particularly her support for LGBTQ+ people.

The math

The Tribune's analysis of the 2018 Senate race found that Democrat Beto O'Rourke would have needed to swing the rural margin by 15 points to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz. Kal Munis, a Montana State University political scientist who studies rural voters, told the Tribune that rural areas remain socially conservative, which shapes an urban-rural divide when one party is defined by social conservatism.

Early voting runs through Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Sources

The Texas Tribune

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Gwen Mercer· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

Gwen Mercer writes about community life, schools, public safety, and local events in Princeton.

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